Read The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate

The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate

Spencer R. Weart

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Description:I am impressed and somewhat surprised. Tremendous progress has been made, and climate scientists should be proud of what they have accomplished. Computer models do (p. 5) "convey insights" in an entirely new way: this is entirely consistent with my experience with ANOVA as applied to compliant pin connections and the performance of blind-mate quick disconnects for liquid-flow-through cooling.This also reflects one of the main points made by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew Page in "The Second Machine Age - Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies." Computing power is advancing so fast that problems that looked unsolvable a few years ago, are now being solved.What is is missing from the current discussion, within the Climate Scientists community, is the following of the (p. 5) injunction - "To know when you were getting close to a realistic model, you had to compare your results with the actual atmosphere." The loss of correlation, over the past 150 years, is arrantly inconsistent with current models. Rather than change the models, climate scientists seem to be seeing the data as a problem.The narrative captures how consistently scientists have to worry about justifying there funding so that can continue to work.p. 3. The effort cost him six weeks of pencil-work. Perhaps never has such a large and significant set of calculations been carried out under more arduous conditions: a convinced pacifist, Richardson had volunteered to serve as an ambulance driver on the Western Front. He did his arithmetic as a relief from the surroundings of battle chaos and dreadful wounds.A great example of the story told in "All Quiet on the Western Front - The Greatest War Novel of All Time" - by Erich Mria Remarque.p. 4. Under grants from the Weather Bureau, the Navy, and the Air Force, von Neumann assembled a small group of theoretical meteorologists at Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study.p. 5. With hindsight we can see that computer models conveyed insights in a way that could not come from physics theory, nor a laboratory setup, nor the data on a weather map, but in an altogether new way.(9)p. 5. To know when you were getting close to a realistic model, you had to compare your results with the actual atmosphere.p. 17. The model with increased CO2 had more moisture in the air, with an intensified hydrological cycle of evaporation and precipitation.I do not know about this. Why is it that "the model with increased CO2 had more moisture in the air?" There would be more moisture if Earth was warmer. Water vapor is, I think, a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. I this an example of a circular logic assumption?p. 18. Instead they had run their model twice to compute two equilibrium states, one with current conditions and one with doubled CO2.This makes it look like there was a circular logic assumption?p. 28. A variety of other criticisms were voiced. The most prominent came from Sherwood Idso. In 1986 he calculated that for the known increase of CO2 since the start of the century, modelsshould predict something like 3°C of warming, which was far more than what had been observed. Idso insisted that something must be badly wrong with the models' sensitivity, that is, theirresponse to changes in conditions.(77) Other scientists gave little heed to the claim. It was only an extension of a long and sometimes bitter controversy in which they had debated Idso's arguments and rejected them as too oversimplified to be meaningful.This seems very much like some current conversations. Criticism based on the failure of the models to match the data are "too oversimplified to be meaningful.p. 31 - 32. However, as Idso and others pointed out, the actual rise in temperature over the century had not kept pace with the rise of the gas. Try as they might, the modelers had not beenable to tune their models to get the modest temperature rise that was observed. An answer came from models that put in the increase of aerosols from humanity's rising pollution.Does this make the net human effect negligible? We should continue to burn coal so that the particulates cancel the CO2?p. 33. A new way to find this number, entirely separate from GCMs, was becoming available from ice core measurements, which recorded that showed large swings of both temperature and CO2 levels through previous ice ages. . . . The climate sensitivity they found for both cases, roughly two degrees of warming for doubled CO2, was comfortably within the range offered by computer modelers.(93a)Is this the sensitivity of the GTA to CO2, or is it the sensitivity of CO2 to the GTA? Both the fact that GTA leads CO2 at major transitions and the current loss of correlation, say that it shows the sensitivity of CO2 to GTA.p. 34. A few scientists who were entirely skeptical about global warming brought the criticisminto public view, arguing that GCMs w...We have made it easy for you to find a PDF Ebooks without any digging. And by having access to our ebooks online or by storing it on your computer, you have convenient answers with The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate. To get started finding The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate, you are right to find our website which has a comprehensive collection of manuals listed.
Our library is the biggest of these that have literally hundreds of thousands of different products represented.

Pages: 50

Format: PDF, EPUB & Kindle Edition

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Release: 2014

ISBN

Description: I am impressed and somewhat surprised. Tremendous progress has been made, and climate scientists should be proud of what they have accomplished. Computer models do (p. 5) "convey insights" in an entirely new way: this is entirely consistent with my experience with ANOVA as applied to compliant pin connections and the performance of blind-mate quick disconnects for liquid-flow-through cooling.This also reflects one of the main points made by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew Page in "The Second Machine Age - Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies." Computing power is advancing so fast that problems that looked unsolvable a few years ago, are now being solved.What is is missing from the current discussion, within the Climate Scientists community, is the following of the (p. 5) injunction - "To know when you were getting close to a realistic model, you had to compare your results with the actual atmosphere." The loss of correlation, over the past 150 years, is arrantly inconsistent with current models. Rather than change the models, climate scientists seem to be seeing the data as a problem.The narrative captures how consistently scientists have to worry about justifying there funding so that can continue to work.p. 3. The effort cost him six weeks of pencil-work. Perhaps never has such a large and significant set of calculations been carried out under more arduous conditions: a convinced pacifist, Richardson had volunteered to serve as an ambulance driver on the Western Front. He did his arithmetic as a relief from the surroundings of battle chaos and dreadful wounds.A great example of the story told in "All Quiet on the Western Front - The Greatest War Novel of All Time" - by Erich Mria Remarque.p. 4. Under grants from the Weather Bureau, the Navy, and the Air Force, von Neumann assembled a small group of theoretical meteorologists at Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study.p. 5. With hindsight we can see that computer models conveyed insights in a way that could not come from physics theory, nor a laboratory setup, nor the data on a weather map, but in an altogether new way.(9)p. 5. To know when you were getting close to a realistic model, you had to compare your results with the actual atmosphere.p. 17. The model with increased CO2 had more moisture in the air, with an intensified hydrological cycle of evaporation and precipitation.I do not know about this. Why is it that "the model with increased CO2 had more moisture in the air?" There would be more moisture if Earth was warmer. Water vapor is, I think, a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. I this an example of a circular logic assumption?p. 18. Instead they had run their model twice to compute two equilibrium states, one with current conditions and one with doubled CO2.This makes it look like there was a circular logic assumption?p. 28. A variety of other criticisms were voiced. The most prominent came from Sherwood Idso. In 1986 he calculated that for the known increase of CO2 since the start of the century, modelsshould predict something like 3°C of warming, which was far more than what had been observed. Idso insisted that something must be badly wrong with the models' sensitivity, that is, theirresponse to changes in conditions.(77) Other scientists gave little heed to the claim. It was only an extension of a long and sometimes bitter controversy in which they had debated Idso's arguments and rejected them as too oversimplified to be meaningful.This seems very much like some current conversations. Criticism based on the failure of the models to match the data are "too oversimplified to be meaningful.p. 31 - 32. However, as Idso and others pointed out, the actual rise in temperature over the century had not kept pace with the rise of the gas. Try as they might, the modelers had not beenable to tune their models to get the modest temperature rise that was observed. An answer came from models that put in the increase of aerosols from humanity's rising pollution.Does this make the net human effect negligible? We should continue to burn coal so that the particulates cancel the CO2?p. 33. A new way to find this number, entirely separate from GCMs, was becoming available from ice core measurements, which recorded that showed large swings of both temperature and CO2 levels through previous ice ages. . . . The climate sensitivity they found for both cases, roughly two degrees of warming for doubled CO2, was comfortably within the range offered by computer modelers.(93a)Is this the sensitivity of the GTA to CO2, or is it the sensitivity of CO2 to the GTA? Both the fact that GTA leads CO2 at major transitions and the current loss of correlation, say that it shows the sensitivity of CO2 to GTA.p. 34. A few scientists who were entirely skeptical about global warming brought the criticisminto public view, arguing that GCMs w...We have made it easy for you to find a PDF Ebooks without any digging. And by having access to our ebooks online or by storing it on your computer, you have convenient answers with The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate. To get started finding The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate, you are right to find our website which has a comprehensive collection of manuals listed.
Our library is the biggest of these that have literally hundreds of thousands of different products represented.

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The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate

The Discovery of Global Warming - General Circulation Models of Climate

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