Read Predictions: 10 Years Later

Predictions: 10 Years Later

Theodore Modis

4.9/5 (20955 ratings)

Description:Using the science of mathematical formulas known as S-curves, Modis offers a fascinating technique for making forecasts in such areas as AIDS research, economics, life expectancy, and even artistic achievement. Among the book's many intriguing predictions are that a cure for AIDS will not be developed until after year 2000, but the disease will never account for more than 1% of all deaths. --The Futurist Bookshelf, The Futurist, 1992.You must read this book. It is the most delightful one on forecasting I have encountered in a very long time. Written for the enjoyment of both layperson and professional, it is fascinating and provocative. The author and much of the subject matter presented will be familiar to our readers ... The title originally proposed by the author was The S-curve Adventure, which is far more indicative of the nature of the work. The author has a background in electrical engineering and physics (Ph.D., Columbia) and is a management science consultant at Digital Equipment Corporation International (Europe) in Geneva. He is also a member of our Journal Advisory Board. Modis was clearly inspired by the ingenious Cesare Marchetti and he successfully popularizes the concepts of invariants, logistic or S-curves, and cycles in forecasting. What makes the book such a pleasure is the mixture of marvelous readability and intriguing material. There are breezy personal anecdotes and other light touches, ranging from the fish population along the Adriatic coast and Vito Volterra to an account of his first meeting with Marchetti in his cluttered office at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) near Vienna. ... All in all, a charming and tantalizing ode to the S-curve that you will hate to put down. --Harold A. Linstone, Editor in Chief, Technological Forecasting & Social ChangeThe undeniable fascination of this book, intended by Modis to reach a literate general publics, is the large and diverse array of topics to which this conceptual scheme is applied the cumulative number of words learned by children from birth through 70 months, the cumulative number of European explorations of the Western Hemisphere following and including Columbus s voyage, the cumulative sales in Europe for Digital VAX 11/750 minicomputer, cumulative oil discovery and production in the United States, the cumulative number of Roman Catholic saints canonized ( Did Christianity begin before Christ? ), the rise and fall of creativity in the life course of artists and scientists and the prediction of their times of death ( Did Einstein publish too much? ) , the cumulative number of American Nobel Prize winners, the substitution of cars for horses in personal transportation, the cumulative number of films produced by Alfred Hitchcock. Studiously obeying the law of the hammer, Modis seemingly cannot resist putting any set of historical time-series data on his personal computer workbench and pounding away. In the process, he subjects virtually every technological growth curve from the first (canals and tunnels), second (railways, steamships, cars, subways, and oil pipelines), and third (paved roads, motorized ships, natural gas pipelines, car populations, Jet engine performance, passenger aircraft performance, passenger air traffic, and personal computer manufacturers and models) waves of industrial growth to analysis, puts forth some intriguing environmental waste-management, and transportation technologies in the forthcoming decades, and even a chaos-theoretic interpretation to the erratic fluctuations often observed after a growth or diffusion process has closed in on its ceiling. I strongly recommend the book to readers who may be interested in such analyses and conjectures. ... It should be noted that Modis is not completely remiss with respect to previous social science research. For instance, he dose cite the relationship of his overall 56-year cycles and evidence on the associated clustering of technological innovations to prior work by Kondratieff and Schumpeter (in my opinion, Modis s evidence on these topics is more extensive and compelling than that of either of these scholars). --Kenneth C. Lang Science, vol. 259, 26 February 1993We have made it easy for you to find a PDF Ebooks without any digging. And by having access to our ebooks online or by storing it on your computer, you have convenient answers with Predictions: 10 Years Later. To get started finding Predictions: 10 Years Later, you are right to find our website which has a comprehensive collection of manuals listed.
Our library is the biggest of these that have literally hundreds of thousands of different products represented.

Pages: 333

Format: PDF, EPUB & Kindle Edition

Publisher: Growth Dynamics

Release: 2002

ISBN: 2970021617

Description: Using the science of mathematical formulas known as S-curves, Modis offers a fascinating technique for making forecasts in such areas as AIDS research, economics, life expectancy, and even artistic achievement. Among the book's many intriguing predictions are that a cure for AIDS will not be developed until after year 2000, but the disease will never account for more than 1% of all deaths. --The Futurist Bookshelf, The Futurist, 1992.You must read this book. It is the most delightful one on forecasting I have encountered in a very long time. Written for the enjoyment of both layperson and professional, it is fascinating and provocative. The author and much of the subject matter presented will be familiar to our readers ... The title originally proposed by the author was The S-curve Adventure, which is far more indicative of the nature of the work. The author has a background in electrical engineering and physics (Ph.D., Columbia) and is a management science consultant at Digital Equipment Corporation International (Europe) in Geneva. He is also a member of our Journal Advisory Board. Modis was clearly inspired by the ingenious Cesare Marchetti and he successfully popularizes the concepts of invariants, logistic or S-curves, and cycles in forecasting. What makes the book such a pleasure is the mixture of marvelous readability and intriguing material. There are breezy personal anecdotes and other light touches, ranging from the fish population along the Adriatic coast and Vito Volterra to an account of his first meeting with Marchetti in his cluttered office at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) near Vienna. ... All in all, a charming and tantalizing ode to the S-curve that you will hate to put down. --Harold A. Linstone, Editor in Chief, Technological Forecasting & Social ChangeThe undeniable fascination of this book, intended by Modis to reach a literate general publics, is the large and diverse array of topics to which this conceptual scheme is applied the cumulative number of words learned by children from birth through 70 months, the cumulative number of European explorations of the Western Hemisphere following and including Columbus s voyage, the cumulative sales in Europe for Digital VAX 11/750 minicomputer, cumulative oil discovery and production in the United States, the cumulative number of Roman Catholic saints canonized ( Did Christianity begin before Christ? ), the rise and fall of creativity in the life course of artists and scientists and the prediction of their times of death ( Did Einstein publish too much? ) , the cumulative number of American Nobel Prize winners, the substitution of cars for horses in personal transportation, the cumulative number of films produced by Alfred Hitchcock. Studiously obeying the law of the hammer, Modis seemingly cannot resist putting any set of historical time-series data on his personal computer workbench and pounding away. In the process, he subjects virtually every technological growth curve from the first (canals and tunnels), second (railways, steamships, cars, subways, and oil pipelines), and third (paved roads, motorized ships, natural gas pipelines, car populations, Jet engine performance, passenger aircraft performance, passenger air traffic, and personal computer manufacturers and models) waves of industrial growth to analysis, puts forth some intriguing environmental waste-management, and transportation technologies in the forthcoming decades, and even a chaos-theoretic interpretation to the erratic fluctuations often observed after a growth or diffusion process has closed in on its ceiling. I strongly recommend the book to readers who may be interested in such analyses and conjectures. ... It should be noted that Modis is not completely remiss with respect to previous social science research. For instance, he dose cite the relationship of his overall 56-year cycles and evidence on the associated clustering of technological innovations to prior work by Kondratieff and Schumpeter (in my opinion, Modis s evidence on these topics is more extensive and compelling than that of either of these scholars). --Kenneth C. Lang Science, vol. 259, 26 February 1993We have made it easy for you to find a PDF Ebooks without any digging. And by having access to our ebooks online or by storing it on your computer, you have convenient answers with Predictions: 10 Years Later. To get started finding Predictions: 10 Years Later, you are right to find our website which has a comprehensive collection of manuals listed.
Our library is the biggest of these that have literally hundreds of thousands of different products represented.

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